Munich workshop on ensemble analysis and visualization
PHE are participating in a European Project titled CONFIDENCE (COping with uNcertainties For Improved modelling and DEcision making in Nuclear emergenCiEs). PHE are working on aspects related to model improvement in the pre-and release phase, through uncertainty analysis and propagation with an ensemble approach. What is meant by an ensemble approach? This is predominantly where model input parameters are perturbed to account for the associated uncertainties and the resulting model output is then assessed to better understand the uncertainties on endpoints used in the provision of advice. The February workshop spent significant time discussing potential methods for operationalising an ensemble approach (to describe uncertainty in emergency assessments); a task that Peter Bedwell will lead.
IAEA's MODARIA II Third Meeting
The IAEA hosted, on 22-25 October 2018, the Third Technical Meeting on the Development, Testing and Harmonization of Models and Data for the Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA II). The four-day meeting brought together over 150 experts, including regulators, scientists, operators and experts from technical support organizations, from 40 countries where they analysed the progress made under the programme and discussed questions on modelling environmental radiation. Tiberio Cabianca, who is the chair, said in his report of the meeting that 'it is important that we already start the process to formulate a general plan for future IAEA activities in the area of environmental protection. The objective of MODARIA to provide a platform for experts to discuss and exchange information on the topic of radiological impact assessment will continue to be a fundamental aim of any future programme and I believe we can strengthen the contribution that the MODARIA community of experts can make to not only the IAEA Nuclear Safety programme but also to the activities of other international organizations.'
Work in support of REPPIR 2019
Following on from the work that PHE has previously done for BEIS in developing a methodology for the forthcoming REPPIR 2019 Schedule 1 values, a new project has been started to support lower risk sites. The project objectives are to develop datafiles of environmental concentrations per unit release and dose per unit release, for application within REPPIR 2019, to support the consequence assessment requirements of the new regulations
New IAEA publications
The IAEA has recently published three related safety standards on Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (GSG-8), Regulatory Control of Discharges to the Environment (GSG-9) and Prospective Radiological Environmental Impact Assessment for Facilities and Activities (GSG-10). PHE staff, Tiberio Cabianca and Kelly Jones, were both involved in the discussions and drafting of the documents with IAEA staff.
Collaboration on population spatial estimates
The University of Southampton is working with Tom Charnock to bring their Pop24/7 approach for generating very high temporal and spatial estimates of population into operational use at PHE. The approach goes beyond census information and uses additional sources such as education, work place and transport data to allow population to be estimated for different times of day, day of week and day of year.